Just Thoughts #48 - From Geopolitical Shock to Cognitive Security: Rebuilding Our Mental Models

A philosophical ontology for distilling proven scientific bits to understand complex dynamics, and build resilience in an age where "facts don't change minds in culture wars, structure does."

Welcome, reader! The first rule of Just Thoughts is, "Why should I think that way?"

---

This week, we dive into a fascinating conversation that challenges our mental models and explores the very foundations of understanding in an increasingly complex world.

Here’s a NotebookLM-generated podcast discussion in summary format for those who prefer audio.

However, before diving into the content, I need to apologize for this teaser of a picture. It seems I gave Vas the middle finger when not intended, but it seems Winston Churchill also got it wrong quite a few times

Headlines:

1. The Genesis of a New Model: From Geopolitical Shock to "Branes"

2. AI as an Augmentation, Not a Replacement

3. Europe's "Dignity-first AI" and Cognitive Security

4. Beyond the Horizon: The Future of Understanding and Collaboration

Paywall

1. How did I construct this blog post in less than three hours? How fast could it be?

2. How do we turn this into a service & product?

---

The Genesis of a New Model: From Geopolitical Shock to "Branes"

Our discussion centered around Vas Zayarskiy's unique approach to making sense of the world, a journey he embarked on after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. His prior mental models, like those of many analysts, suggested that such an event was "suicide" and "geopolitical shooting yourself in the foot". However, the unfolding reality revealed that these models lacked sufficient predictive power. This realization triggered a period of deep self-analysis and a recontextualization of his knowledge, including insights from his consulting practice on organizational change.

This intense period led him to formulate a philosophical ontology for reinterpreting information, which he playfully calls "Brain from Brane". This concept is a metaphorical and playful reference to quantum physics, specifically string theory, where "brane" refers to a slice of space where strings reside, manifesting into fundamental particles.

Vas emphasizes that his work is not about reinventing empirical science but rather creating a philosophical synthesis of existing, proven scientific bits, distilled into an accessible ontological framework that can span disciplines. This aligns with the idea, as we discussed in the context of generalists, that innovation often comes from combining multiple fields of knowledge rather than simply delving deeply into one existing domain of expertise. A learning from the book “Range: Why Generalists Strive in a Specialized World”

AI as an Augmentation, Not a Replacement

When it comes to creating content, Vas, like many modern creators, leverages AI as an augmentation tool. He provides the "skeleton" of his writing – the core ideas – and then uses AI to "fill in the gaps," ensuring flow, comprehensibility, and structure. More significantly, he delegates much of the infrastructure development and coding to AI, providing the architectural thinking and "play space" for the AI to execute. His focus remains on the content itself and how well the ideas are presented, rather than meticulously tweaking the tone of voice.

This raises interesting questions about the blurring lines between human and AI creation, a topic frequently explored in Just Thoughts, for example, through discussions on Picasso quotes and AI-generated art.

The current "anxiety about AI content" leads to human efforts to distinguish themselves, often through stylistic choices like typography or even CAPTCHA challenges. As we've noted, AI can generate impressive content, but human will, experience, and the intrinsic desire to connect through stories remain paramount.

Europe's "Dignity-first AI" and Cognitive Security

A key concept in Vas's work is "Dignity-first AI," particularly relevant for Europe's future. He argues that Europe's welfare model faces structural challenges, partly due to the historical reliance on cheap energy and American defense investment, alongside a shrinking population. AI, he believes, offers an opportunity to decouple productivity from population size, allowing productivity increases to benefit the people directly, rather than just a few shareholders. This vision aligns with Europe's value system, where individuals are empowered to choose their life paths.

This discussion extends to the broader topic of cognitive security. Vas's recent article, which topped Hacker News, highlighted that "facts don't change minds in culture wars, structure does".

His goal is to provide tools for people to visualize information system dynamics and avoid "sleepwalking" into outcomes. He emphasizes that this concept of cognitive warfare and cognitive resilience is actively being studied by entities like NATO.

It underscores the importance of understanding not just what information is presented, but how it is structured and consumed, influencing belief systems. An example of this was presented in Just Cultural #21:

Beyond the Horizon: The Future of Understanding and Collaboration

Vas views his work as an ongoing process of refining core ideas as more information emerges. He actively seeks criticism from academics and encourages others to pick apart his models, scrutinize them, and test them empirically.

In an increasingly noisy world where the exponential growth of content, especially AI-generated, makes it harder for human-created work to stand out, understanding underlying structures and dynamics becomes paramount. Vas's work provides a lens through which to examine these challenges, not just for content creators but for anyone seeking to navigate complex information landscapes.

To delve deeper into Vas's concepts and follow his ongoing work, you can visit his webpage at vasily.cc.